So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part IV)?
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One Year Treasurys and One Year Forwards
Interest rates still expected to rise, but at slower pace:
The “Non-Technical Recession” Recession of 2001
I recall a conversation sometime in May 2001, when on the staff of the CEA, where the topic was how all the indicators were all pointing toward avoiding a recession. Indeed, using the oft-cited rule of thumb of two-consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, there was no 2001 recession (although there was by this criterion a period of about 2 years, 2002-04, when there was). Consider this graph of GDP, by different vintages:
Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st
IHS-Markit’s monthly GDP now down seven months. Some key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:
Term Spread Models for Recession by June 2023
Probabilities from 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr spreads:
Inflation, May 2022
Month-on-month indicators down, particularly core PCE:
GDP, GDO, and Seasonally Adjusted vs. Not Seasonally Adjusted
Year-on-year picture:
Business Cycle Indicators end-June
With consumption (nominal at 0.2% vs.0.4% consensus) and personal income May releases, we have the following snapshot of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Does a Decline in the 12 Month Moving Average of VMT Presage a Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
But by and large, VMT on a 12 mms basis turns a bit before or right at the start of a recession.
GDP and GDO, 3rd vs 2nd release
From BEA today: