One term spread steepens sharply; only one spread has actually inverted. The five year inflation breakeven is falling. And risk is rising.
Messages from the Market
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CFNAI in August
Doesn’t look like a recession in that month, nor in previous.
Weekly Economic Activity in the UK, and Two Self-Inflicted Wounds
So far, the UK economy is plugging along, according to the OECD Weekly Tracker (through 9/17). But (understatement of the year), challenges have arisen.
Tracking the Euro Area at High Frequency
There aren’t many measures of euro area wide economic activity at higher than monthly frequency, to my knowledge. One series is the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, based upon big data and machine learning, discussed here. VoxEU post here. This measure shows deceleration in the week through 9/17.
Guest Contribution: “The Dollar Dazzles Once More”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Rumors of the Vast Data Conspiracy Continue
A (conspiracy-minded) reader writes: “Where is this being reported? Heck FRED doesn’t even graph real corporate profit growth. Shhhhh!”. But all one has to do is search for “corporate profits” (5 seconds) and then an appropriate deflator. I use the PCE deflator, and I get the following graph in FRED, which I download:
Weekly Economic Activity through September 17th
Year-on-year, activity growth is still growing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a few days ago (September 17th):
Recession on the Horizon?
IGM-FTmid -September survey:
US, Euro Area and China GDP over the Pandemic and Recovery
Following up on the last post, here is a graph of three major economies.
World Bank: “Is a Global Recession Imminent?”
A Note by Justin Damien Guénette, M. Ayhan Kose, and Naotaka Sugawara.