Implicitly, Trump is saying John Taylor is crazy, since the original Taylor rule would imply even faster rises in the Fed funds rate (I am inferring from Professor Taylor’s discussion of neutral rates. Below I plot the implied Fed funds rate, assuming no interest rate smoothing, the Laubach-Williams one-sided estimate of the real natural rate, and a target variable of 4 quarter PCE inflation.
A reader alerts me – from CNBC, indications farmers are going to take a hit, as export volume drops off a cliff.
United States tariffs are beginning to take their toll on farmers and the storage, shipping and freight operations they need to move their crops to market.
In North Dakota, soybeans from 2017 are still in storage after China pulled its contracts. Of the 15.9 million bushels left from that year’s crop, 12.1 million bushels are sitting in grain elevators. That is an increase of 68 percent.
Has spending on international travel to and tourism in the US dropped more than expected based on world GDP and the value of the dollar? Yes.
Taxes announced, proposed, on Chinese imported goods. Or, shoot yourself in the foot edition.
How does a tariff work? A tariff is a tax on imported goods, so if a Chinese good is sold to an American, the American literally has to pay the tax.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Ines Buono and Sara Formai (Banca d’Italia) summarizing their chapter published in the book International Macroeconomics in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis edited by L. Ferrara, I. Hernando and D. Marconi. The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of their respective institutions.