In 2019, Fed economist David Miller undertook a comprehensive assessment of term spread predictive power for recessions (There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions). For the 1984-2018 period, he found the following:
From CNN:
China’s major stock indices and its currency have opened sharply lower Monday, as widespread protests against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend roiled investor sentiment.
From a new book from Cambridge:
No.
Yesterday’s Bloomberg article “Fed Staff Sees a 50-50 Chance of Recession” spurred me to examine the implications of the latest readings on term spreads. Figure 1 depicts the recession probabilities estimated using a simple probit model based on the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr spreads, through November 23rd.
A long running debate between reader JohnH and just about anybody else on this website involves UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real wages, with JohnH quoting from various documents. I thought it useful to GET THE DATA MYSELF to resolve the question. Below are three graphs, of consumer price level, year-on-year inflation, and the CPI deflated wage.
Regarding the view the US economy was in recession earlier this year (e.g., this observer less than a month ago), the CFNAI has the following takes:
The current GDP deflator should be 18% higher (in log terms), or 154.2 instead of 128.2. To see this, consider the tautology:
Christiane Baumeister shared this snapshot as of the week ending on Oct 29, 2022 compared to the same week one year ago, measured in growth rates relative to long-run national average growth, as measured by the Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly economic conditions index.
Industrial production declined 0.1% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.2. NFP employment rose in October strongly. Other key indicators followed by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.